Last data update: Apr 22, 2024. (Total: 46599 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 62 Records) |
Query Trace: Iuliano AD[original query] |
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Responding to the return of influenza in the United States by applying Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance, analysis, and modeling to inform understanding of seasonal influenza
Borchering RK , Biggerstaff M , Brammer L , Budd A , Garg S , Fry AM , Iuliano AD , Reed C . JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024 10 e54340 We reviewed the tools that have been developed to characterize and communicate seasonal influenza activity in the United States. Here we focus on systematic surveillance and applied analytics, including seasonal burden and disease severity estimation, short-term forecasting, and longer-term modeling efforts. For each set of activities, we describe the challenges and opportunities that have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, we highlight how collaboration and communication have been and will continue to be key components of reliable and actionable influenza monitoring, forecasting, and modeling activities. |
Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012–2019: a prospective observational study
Islam MA , Hassan MZ , Aleem MA , Akhtar Z , Chowdhury S , Ahmmed MK , Rahman M , Rahman MZ , Mah-E-Muneer S , Uzzaman MS , Shirin T , Flora MS , Rahman M , Davis WW , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Iuliano AD , Chowdhury F . Lancet Reg Heal Southeast Asia 2024 Background: Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models. Findings: Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5–48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1–1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2–23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7–3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4–2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9–14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths. Interpretation: Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259]. © 2024 The Author(s) |
Standard-dose versus MF59-adjuvanted, high-dose or recombinant-hemagglutinin influenza vaccine immunogenicity in older adults: comparison of A(H3N2) antibody response by prior season's vaccine status
Zhong S , Ng TWY , Skowronski DM , Iuliano AD , Leung NHL , Perera Rapm , Ho F , Fang VJ , Tam YH , Ip DKM , Havers FG , Fry AM , Aziz-Baumgartner E , Barr IG , Peiris M , Thompson MG , Cowling BJ . J Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for older adults but repeated vaccination with standard-dose influenza vaccine has been linked to reduced immunogenicity and effectiveness, especially against A(H3N2) viruses. METHODS: Community-dwelling Hong Kong adults aged 65-82 years were randomly allocated to receive 2017/18 standard-dose quadrivalent, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent, high-dose trivalent, and recombinant-HA quadrivalent vaccination. Antibody response to unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine antigen was compared among participants with and without self-reported prior year (2016/17) standard-dose vaccination. RESULTS: Mean fold rise (MFR) in antibody titers from Day 0 to Day 30 by hemagglutination inhibition and virus microneutralization assays were lower among 2017/18 standard-dose and enhanced vaccine recipients with (range, 1.7-3.0) vs. without (range, 4.3-14.3) prior 2016/17 vaccination. MFR was significantly reduced by about one half to four fifths for previously vaccinated recipients of standard-dose and all three enhanced vaccines (β range, 0.21-0.48). Among prior-year vaccinated older adults, enhanced vaccines induced higher 1.43 to 2.39-fold geometric mean titers and 1.28 to 1.74-fold MFR vs. standard-dose vaccine by microneutralization assay. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine strain, prior-year vaccination was associated with reduced antibody response among both standard-dose and enhanced influenza vaccine recipients. Enhanced vaccines improved antibody response among older adults with prior-year standard-dose vaccination. |
High influenza incidence and disease severity among children and adolescents aged <18 years - United States, 2022-23 season
White EB , O'Halloran A , Sundaresan D , Gilmer M , Threlkel R , Colón A , Tastad K , Chai SJ , Alden NB , Yousey-Hindes K , Openo KP , Ryan PA , Kim S , Lynfield R , Spina N , Tesini BL , Martinez M , Schmidt Z , Sutton M , Talbot HK , Hill M , Biggerstaff M , Budd A , Garg S , Reed C , Iuliano AD , Bozio CH . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (41) 1108-1114 During the 2022-23 influenza season, early increases in influenza activity, co-circulation of influenza with other respiratory viruses, and high influenza-associated hospitalization rates, particularly among children and adolescents, were observed. This report describes the 2022-23 influenza season among children and adolescents aged <18 years, including the seasonal severity assessment; estimates of U.S. influenza-associated medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths; and characteristics of influenza-associated hospitalizations. The 2022-23 influenza season had high severity among children and adolescents compared with thresholds based on previous seasons' influenza-associated outpatient visits, hospitalization rates, and deaths. Nationally, the incidences of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalization for the 2022-23 season were similar for children aged <5 years and higher for children and adolescents aged 5-17 years compared with previous seasons. Peak influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization activity occurred in late November and early December. Among children and adolescents hospitalized with influenza during the 2022-23 season in hospitals participating in the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network, a lower proportion were vaccinated (18.3%) compared with previous seasons (35.8%-41.8%). Early influenza circulation, before many children and adolescents had been vaccinated, might have contributed to the high hospitalization rates during the 2022-23 season. Among symptomatic hospitalized patients, receipt of influenza antiviral treatment (64.9%) was lower than during pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons (80.8%-87.1%). CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months without contraindications should receive the annual influenza vaccine, ideally by the end of October. |
Reply to Alonso et al. "Bangladesh and Rwanda: Cases of high burden of influenza in tropical countries?"
Ahmed M , Roguski K , Tempia S , Iuliano AD . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2018 12 (5) 669-671 We thank Dr. Alonso et al for their commentary1 on our articles, “Estimates of Seasonal Influenza‐Associated Mortality in Bangladesh, 2010‐2012”2 and “The National Burden of Influenza‐Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness Hospitalization in Rwanda, 2012‐2014.”3 In their commentary, they described three assumptions that we would like to address: (1) their use of “substantial” burden compared to “high” burden, (2) the comparability of influenza burden in tropical climate countries, and (3) the impact of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus on mortality. In addition, they describe three concerns about our estimates, which we would also like to clarify, specifically: (4) a mismatch in the timing of respiratory deaths and the influenza virus circulation period, (5) mortality attribution, and (6) the comparison with Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates. We will address each of these comments or concerns in this brief response. |
National burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations in Cambodia, 2015 and 2016
Ieng V , Tolosa MX , Tek B , Sar B , Sim K , Seng H , Thyl M , Dara C , Moniborin M , Stewart RJ , Bell LC , Theocharopoulos G , Chin S , Chau D , Iuliano AD , Moen A , Tsuyuoka R , Dueger EL , Sullivan SG , Ly S . Western Pac Surveill Response J 2018 9 44-52 INTRODUCTION: The burden of influenza in Cambodia is not well known, but it would be useful for understanding the impact of seasonal epidemics and pandemics and to design appropriate policies for influenza prevention and control. The severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance system in Cambodia was used to estimate the national burden of SARI hospitalizations in Cambodia. METHODS: We estimated age-specific influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates in three sentinel sites in Svay Rieng, Siem Reap and Kampong Cham provinces. We used influenza-associated SARI surveillance data for one year to estimate the numerator and hospital admission surveys to estimate the population denominator for each site. A national influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rate was calculated using the pooled influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations for all sites as a numerator and the pooled catchment population of all sites as denominator. National influenza-associated SARI case counts were estimated by applying hospitalization rates to the national population. RESULTS: The national annual rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations per 100 000 population was highest for the two youngest age groups at 323 for < 1 year and 196 for 1-4 years. We estimated 7547 influenza-associated hospitalizations for Cambodia with almost half of these represented by children younger than 5 years. DISCUSSION: We present national estimates of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates for Cambodia based on sentinel surveillance data from three sites. The results of this study indicate that the highest burden of severe influenza infection is borne by the younger age groups. These findings can be used to guide future strategies to reduce influenza morbidity. |
Estimated mortality due to seasonal influenza in southeast of Iran, 2006/2007 to 2011/2012 influenza seasons
Khajehkazemi R , Baneshi MR , Iuliano AD , Roguski KM , Sharifi H , Bresee J , Haghdoost A . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022 17 (1) e13061 BACKGROUND: Global estimates showed an estimate of up to 650,000 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths annually. However, the mortality rate of seasonal influenza is unknown for most countries in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, including Iran. We aimed to estimate the excess mortality attributable to seasonal influenza in Kerman province, southeast Iran for the influenza seasons 2006/2007-2011/2012. METHODS: We applied a Serfling model to the weekly total pneumonia and influenza (PI) mortality rate during winter to define the epidemic periods and to the weekly age-specific PI, respiratory, circulatory, and all-cause deaths during non-epidemic periods to estimate baseline mortality. The excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and predicted mortality. Country estimates were obtained by multiplying the estimated annual excess death rates by the populations of Iran. RESULTS: We estimated an annual average excess of 40 PI, 100 respiratory, 94 circulatory, and 306 all-cause deaths attributable to seasonal influenza in Kerman; corresponding to annual rates of 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.8) PI, 3.6 (95% CI 2.6-4.8) respiratory, 3.4 (95% CI 2.1-5.2) circulatory, and 11.0 (95% CI 7.3-15.6) all-cause deaths per 100,000 population. Adults ≥75 years accounted for 56% and 53% of all excess respiratory and circulatory deaths, respectively. At country level, we would expect an annual of 1119 PI to 8792 all-cause deaths attributable to seasonal influenza. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings help to define the mortality burden of seasonal influenza, most of which affects adults aged ≥75 years. This study supports influenza prevention and vaccination programs in older adults. |
Influenza Activity and Composition of the 2022-23 Influenza Vaccine - United States, 2021-22 Season.
Merced-Morales A , Daly P , Abd Elal AI , Ajayi N , Annan E , Budd A , Barnes J , Colon A , Cummings CN , Iuliano AD , DaSilva J , Dempster N , Garg S , Gubareva L , Hawkins D , Howa A , Huang S , Kirby M , Kniss K , Kondor R , Liddell J , Moon S , Nguyen HT , O'Halloran A , Smith C , Stark T , Tastad K , Ujamaa D , Wentworth DE , Fry AM , Dugan VG , Brammer L . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (29) 913-919 Before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, influenza activity in the United States typically began to increase in the fall and peaked in February. During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June, featuring two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. This report summarizes influenza activity during October 3, 2021-June 11, 2022, in the United States and describes the composition of the Northern Hemisphere 2022-23 influenza vaccine. Although influenza activity is decreasing and circulation during summer is typically low, remaining vigilant for influenza infections, performing testing for seasonal influenza viruses, and monitoring for novel influenza A virus infections are important. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) is ongoing; health care providers and persons with exposure to sick or infected birds should remain vigilant for onset of symptoms consistent with influenza. Receiving a seasonal influenza vaccine each year remains the best way to protect against seasonal influenza and its potentially severe consequences. |
Point Prevalence Estimates of Activity-Limiting Long-Term Symptoms among U.S. Adults ≥1 Month After Reported SARS-CoV-2 Infection, November 1, 2021.
Tenforde MW , Devine OJ , Reese HE , Silk BJ , Iuliano AD , Threlkel R , Vu QM , Plumb ID , Cadwell BL , Rose C , Steele MK , Briggs-Hagen M , Ayoubkhani D , Pawelek P , Nafilyan V , Saydah SH , Bertolli J . J Infect Dis 2023 227 (7) 855-863 BACKGROUND: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021. METHODS: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration. RESULTS: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0-5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%-1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month's duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%-2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%-3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population. |
Use of At-Home COVID-19 Tests - United States, August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022.
Rader B , Gertz A , Iuliano AD , Gilmer M , Wronski L , Astley CM , Sewalk K , Varrelman TJ , Cohen J , Parikh R , Reese HE , Reed C , Brownstein JS . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (13) 489-494 COVID-19 testing provides information regarding exposure and transmission risks, guides preventative measures (e.g., if and when to start and end isolation and quarantine), identifies opportunities for appropriate treatments, and helps assess disease prevalence (1). At-home rapid COVID-19 antigen tests (at-home tests) are a convenient and accessible alternative to laboratory-based diagnostic nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (2-4). With the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants in 2021, demand for at-home tests increased(†) (5). At-home tests are commonly used for school- or employer-mandated testing and for confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a COVID-19-like illness or following exposure (6). Mandated COVID-19 reporting requirements omit at-home tests, and there are no standard processes for test takers or manufacturers to share results with appropriate health officials (2). Therefore, with increased COVID-19 at-home test use, laboratory-based reporting systems might increasingly underreport the actual incidence of infection. Data from a cross-sectional, nonprobability-based online survey (August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022) of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years were used to estimate self-reported at-home test use over time, and by demographic characteristics, geography, symptoms/syndromes, and reasons for testing. From the Delta-predominant period (August 23-December 11, 2021) to the Omicron-predominant period (December 19, 2021-March 12, 2022)(§) (7), at-home test use among respondents with self-reported COVID-19-like illness(¶) more than tripled from 5.7% to 20.1%. The two most commonly reported reasons for testing among persons who used an at-home test were COVID-19 exposure (39.4%) and COVID-19-like symptoms (28.9%). At-home test use differed by race (e.g., self-identified as White [5.9%] versus self-identified as Black [2.8%]), age (adults aged 30-39 years [6.4%] versus adults aged ≥75 years [3.6%]), household income (>$150,000 [9.5%] versus $50,000-$74,999 [4.7%]), education (postgraduate degree [8.4%] versus high school or less [3.5%]), and geography (New England division [9.6%] versus West South Central division [3.7%]). COVID-19 testing, including at-home tests, along with prevention measures, such as quarantine and isolation when warranted, wearing a well-fitted mask when recommended after a positive test or known exposure, and staying up to date with vaccination,** can help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Further, providing reliable and low-cost or free at-home test kits to underserved populations with otherwise limited access to COVID-19 testing could assist with continued prevention efforts. |
All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States
Schmidt SSS , Iuliano AD , Vestergaard LS , Mazagatos-Ateca C , Larrauri A , Brauner JM , Olsen SJ , Nielsen J , Salomon JA , Krause TG . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022 16 (4) 707-716 BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza-associated excess mortality estimates can be timely and provide useful information on the severity of an epidemic. This methodology can be leveraged during an emergency response or pandemic. METHOD: For Denmark, Spain, and the United States, we estimated age-stratified excess mortality for (i) all-cause, (ii) respiratory and circulatory, (iii) circulatory, (iv) respiratory, and (v) pneumonia, and influenza causes of death for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. We quantified differences between the countries and seasonal excess mortality estimates and the death categories. We used a time-series linear regression model accounting for time and seasonal trends using mortality data from 2010 through 2017. RESULTS: The respective periods of weekly excess mortality for all-cause and cause-specific deaths were similar in their chronological patterns. Seasonal all-cause excess mortality rates for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons were 4.7 (3.3-6.1) and 14.3 (13.0-15.6) per 100,000 population, for the United States; 20.3 (15.8-25.0) and 24.0 (19.3-28.7) per 100,000 population for Denmark; and 22.9 (18.9-26.9) and 52.9 (49.1-56.8) per 100,000 population for Spain. Seasonal respiratory and circulatory excess mortality estimates were two to three times lower than the all-cause estimates. DISCUSSION: We observed fewer influenza-associated deaths when we examined cause-specific death categories compared with all-cause deaths and observed the same trends in peaks in deaths with all death causes. Because all-cause deaths are more available, these models can be used to monitor virus activity in near real time. This approach may contribute to the development of timely mortality monitoring systems during public health emergencies. |
Trends in Disease Severity and Health Care Utilization During the Early Omicron Variant Period Compared with Previous SARS-CoV-2 High Transmission Periods - United States, December 2020-January 2022.
Iuliano AD , Brunkard JM , Boehmer TK , Peterson E , Adjei S , Binder AM , Cobb S , Graff P , Hidalgo P , Panaggio MJ , Rainey JJ , Rao P , Soetebier K , Wacaster S , Ai C , Gupta V , Molinari NM , Ritchey MD . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (4) 146-152 The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was first clinically identified in the United States on December 1, 2021, and spread rapidly. By late December, it became the predominant strain, and by January 15, 2022, it represented 99.5% of sequenced specimens in the United States* (1). The Omicron variant has been shown to be more transmissible and less virulent than previously circulating variants (2,3). To better understand the severity of disease and health care utilization associated with the emergence of the Omicron variant in the United States, CDC examined data from three surveillance systems and a large health care database to assess multiple indicators across three high-COVID-19 transmission periods: December 1, 2020-February 28, 2021 (winter 2020-21); July 15-October 31, 2021 (SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 [Delta] predominance); and December 19, 2021-January 15, 2022 (Omicron predominance). The highest daily 7-day moving average to date of cases (798,976 daily cases during January 9-15, 2022), emergency department (ED) visits (48,238), and admissions (21,586) were reported during the Omicron period, however, the highest daily 7-day moving average of deaths (1,854) was lower than during previous periods. During the Omicron period, a maximum of 20.6% of staffed inpatient beds were in use for COVID-19 patients, 3.4 and 7.2 percentage points higher than during the winter 2020-21 and Delta periods, respectively. However, intensive care unit (ICU) bed use did not increase to the same degree: 30.4% of staffed ICU beds were in use for COVID-19 patients during the Omicron period, 0.5 percentage points lower than during the winter 2020-21 period and 1.2 percentage points higher than during the Delta period. The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020-21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods. Further, among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 199 U.S. hospitals, the mean length of stay and percentages who were admitted to an ICU, received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and died while in the hospital were lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods. COVID-19 disease severity appears to be lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods of high transmission, likely related to higher vaccination coverage,(†) which reduces disease severity (4), lower virulence of the Omicron variant (3,5,6), and infection-acquired immunity (3,7). Although disease severity appears lower with the Omicron variant, the high volume of ED visits and hospitalizations can strain local health care systems in the United States, and the average daily number of deaths remains substantial.(§) This underscores the importance of national emergency preparedness, specifically, hospital surge capacity and the ability to adequately staff local health care systems. In addition, being up to date on vaccination and following other recommended prevention strategies are critical to preventing infections, severe illness, or death from COVID-19. |
Application of Bayesian spatial-temporal models for estimating unrecognized COVID-19 deaths in the United States.
Zhang Y , Chang HH , Iuliano AD , Reed C . Spat Stat 2022 50 100584 In the United States, COVID-19 has become a leading cause of death since 2020. However, the number of COVID-19 deaths reported from death certificates is likely to represent an underestimate of the total deaths related to SARS-CoV-2 infections. Estimating those deaths not captured through death certificates is important to understanding the full burden of COVID-19 on mortality. In this work, we explored enhancements to an existing approach by employing Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate unrecognized deaths attributed to COVID-19 using weekly state-level COVID-19 viral surveillance and mortality data in the United States from March 2020 to April 2021. We demonstrated our model using those aged 85 years who died. First, we used a spatial-temporal binomial regression model to estimate the percent of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results. A spatial-temporal negative-binomial model was then used to estimate unrecognized COVID-19 deaths by exploiting the spatial-temporal association between SARS-CoV-2 percent positive and all-cause mortality counts using an excess mortality approach. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference was accomplished via the Polya-Gamma representation of the binomial and negative-binomial models. Among those aged 85 years, we estimated 58,200 (95% CI: 51,300, 64,900) unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, which accounts for 26% (95% CI: 24%, 29%) of total COVID-19 deaths in this age group. Our modeling results suggest that COVID-19 mortality and the proportion of unrecognized deaths among deaths attributed to COVID-19 vary by time and across states. |
Burden of influenza-associated respiratory hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014-2016
Khanh NC , Fowlkes AL , Nghia ND , Duong TN , Tu NH , Tu TA , McFarland JW , Nguyen TTM , Ha NT , Gould PL , Thanh PN , Trang NTH , Mai VQ , Thi PN , Otsu S , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Anh DD , Iuliano AD . Emerg Infect Dis 2021 27 (10) 2648-2657 Influenza burden estimates are essential to informing prevention and control policies. To complement recent influenza vaccine production capacity in Vietnam, we used acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalization data, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance data, and provincial population data from 4 provinces representing Vietnam's major regions during 2014-2016 to calculate provincial and national influenza-associated ARI and SARI hospitalization rates. We determined the proportion of ARI admissions meeting the World Health Organization SARI case definition through medical record review. The mean influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 218 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 197-238) for ARI and 134 (95% UI 119-149) for SARI. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were highest among children <5 years of age (1,123; 95% UI 946-1,301) and adults >65 years of age (207; 95% UI 186-227), underscoring the need for prevention and control measures, such as vaccination, in these at-risk populations. |
Estimating the national burden of hospitalizations for influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2016
Khamphaphongphane B , Chiew M , Mott JA , Khamphanoulath S , Khanthamaly V , Vilivong K , Sisouk T , Bell L , Dueger E , Sullivan S , Iuliano AD , Tsuyuoka R , Keosavanh O . Western Pac Surveill Response J 2021 12 (2) 19-27 OBJECTIVE: Estimates of the burden of influenza are needed to inform prevention and control activities for seasonal influenza, including to support the development of appropriate vaccination policies. We used sentinel surveillance data on severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) to estimate the burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. METHODS: Using methods developed by the World Health Organization, we combined data from hospital logbook reviews with epidemiological and virological data from influenza surveillance from 1 January to 31 December 2016 in defined catchment areas for two sentinel sites (Champasack and Luang Prabang provincial hospitals) to derive population-based estimates of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates. Hospitalization rates by age group were then applied to national age-specific population estimates using 2015 census data. RESULTS: We estimated the overall influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rate to be 48/100 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44-51) or 3097 admissions (95% CI: 2881-3313). SARI hospitalization rates were estimated to be as low as 40/100 000 population (95% CI: 37-43) and as high as 92/100 000 population (95% CI: 87-98) after accounting for SARI patient underascertainment in hospital logbooks. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates were highest in children aged < 5 years (219; 95% CI: 198-241) and persons aged (3) 65 years (106; 95% CI: 91-121). DISCUSSION: Our findings have identified age groups at higher risk for influenza-associated SARI hospitalization, which will support policy decisions for influenza prevention and control strategies, including for vaccination. Further work is needed to estimate the burdens of outpatient influenza and influenza in specific high-risk subpopulations. |
Estimating Under-recognized COVID-19 Deaths, United States, March 2020-May 2021 using an Excess Mortality Modelling Approach.
Iuliano AD , Chang HH , Patel NN , Threlkel R , Kniss K , Reich J , Steele M , Hall AJ , Fry AM , Reed C . Lancet Reg Health Am 2021 1 100019 BACKGROUND: In the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths. METHODS: We estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths. FINDINGS: We estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021). DISCUSSION: Estimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: None. |
Incidence rates of influenza illness during pregnancy in Suzhou, China, 2015-2018
Chen L , Zhou S , Bao L , Millman AJ , Zhang Z , Wang Y , Tan Y , Song Y , Cui P , Pang Y , Liu C , Qin J , Zhang P , Thompson MG , Iuliano AD , Zhang R , Greene CM , Zhang J . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2021 16 (1) 14-23 BACKGROUND: Data on influenza incidence during pregnancy in China are limited. METHODS: From October 2015 to September 2018, we conducted active surveillance for acute respiratory illness (ARI) among women during pregnancy. Nurses conducted twice weekly phone and text message follow-up upon enrollment until delivery to identify new episodes of ARI. Nasal and throat swabs were collected ≤10 days from illness onset to detect influenza. RESULTS: In total, we enrolled 18 724 pregnant women median aged 28 years old, 37% in first trimester, 48% in second trimester, and 15% in third trimester, with seven self-reported influenza vaccination during pregnancy. In the 18-week epidemic period during October 2015 to September 2016, influenza incidence was 0.7/100 person-months (95% CI: 0.5-0.9). In the cumulative 29-week-long epidemic during October 2016 to September 2017, influenza incidence was 1.0/100 person-months (95% CI: 0.8-1.2). In the 11-week epidemic period during October 2017 to September 2018, influenza incidence was 2.1/100 person-months (95% CI: 1.9-2.4). Influenza incidence was similar by trimester. More than half of the total influenza illnesses had no elevated temperature and cough. Most influenza-associated ARIs were mild, and <5.1% required hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza illness in all trimesters of pregnancy was common. These data may help inform decisions regarding the use of influenza vaccine to prevent influenza during pregnancy. |
Immunogenicity of standard, high-dose, MF59-adjuvanted, and recombinant-HA seasonal influenza vaccination in older adults
Li APY , Cohen CA , Leung NHL , Fang VJ , Gangappa S , Sambhara S , Levine MZ , Iuliano AD , Perera Rapm , Ip DKM , Peiris JSM , Thompson MG , Cowling BJ , Valkenburg SA . NPJ Vaccines 2021 6 (1) 25 The vaccine efficacy of standard-dose seasonal inactivated influenza vaccines (S-IIV) can be improved by the use of vaccines with higher antigen content or adjuvants. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in older adults to compare cellular and antibody responses of S-IIV versus enhanced vaccines (eIIV): MF59-adjuvanted (A-eIIV), high-dose (H-eIIV), and recombinant-hemagglutinin (HA) (R-eIIV). All vaccines induced comparable H3-HA-specific IgG and elevated antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) activity at day 30 post vaccination. H3-HA-specific ADCC responses were greatest following H-eIIV. Only A-eIIV increased H3-HA-IgG avidity, HA-stalk IgG and ADCC activity. eIIVs also increased polyfunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, while cellular immune responses were skewed toward single-cytokine-producing T cells among S-IIV subjects. Our study provides further immunological evidence for the preferential use of eIIVs in older adults as each vaccine platform had an advantage over the standard-dose vaccine in terms of NK cell activation, HA-stalk antibodies, and T cell responses. |
Variability in published rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations: A systematic review, 2007-2018
Roguski KM , Rolfes MA , Reich JS , Owens Z , Patel N , Fitzner J , Cozza V , Lafond KE , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Iuliano AD . J Glob Health 2020 10 (2) 020430 BACKGROUND: Influenza burden estimates help provide evidence to support influenza prevention and control programs at local and international levels. METHODS: Through a systematic review, we aimed to identify all published articles estimating rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations, describe methods and data sources used, and identify regions of the world where estimates are still lacking. We evaluated study heterogeneity to determine if we could pool published rates to generate global estimates of influenza-associated hospitalization. RESULTS: We identified 98 published articles estimating influenza-associated hospitalization rates from 2007-2018. Most articles (65%) identified were from high-income countries, with 34 of those (53%) presenting estimates from the United States. While we identified fewer publications (18%) from low- and lower-middle-income countries, 50% of those were published from 2015-2018, suggesting an increase in publications from lower-income countries in recent years. Eighty percent (n = 78) used a multiplier approach. Regression modelling techniques were only used with data from upper-middle or high-income countries where hospital administrative data was available. We identified variability in the methods, case definitions, and data sources used, including 91 different age groups and 11 different categories of case definitions. Due to the high observed heterogeneity across articles (I(2) >99%), we were unable to pool published estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The variety of methods, data sources, and case definitions adapted locally suggests that the current literature cannot be synthesized to generate global estimates of influenza-associated hospitalization burden. |
Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization - United States, February-September, 2020.
Reese H , Iuliano AD , Patel NN , Garg S , Kim L , Silk BJ , Hall AJ , Fry A , Reed C . Clin Infect Dis 2020 72 (12) e1010-e1017 BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of under-detection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27-September 30, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning. |
Global seasonal influenza mortality estimates: a comparison of three different approaches
Cozza V , Campbell H , Chang HH , Iuliano AD , Paget J , Patel NN , Reiner RC , Troeger C , Viboud C , Bresee JS , Fitzner J . Am J Epidemiol 2020 190 (5) 718-727 Prior to updating global influenza-associated mortality estimates, the World Health Organization convened a consultation in July 2017 to understand differences in methodology and implications on results of three influenza mortality projects from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research (GLaMOR), and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The expert panel reviewed estimates and discussed differences in data sources, analysis, and modeling assumptions. We performed a comparison analysis of the estimates. Influenza-associated respiratory death counts were comparable between CDC and GLaMOR; IHME estimate was considerably lower. The greatest country-specific influenza-associated mortality rate fold differences between CDC/IHME and between GLaMOR/IHME estimates were among countries in South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean region. The data envelope used for the calculation was one of the major differences (CDC and GLaMOR: all respiratory deaths; IHME: low respiratory infection deaths). With the assumption that there is only one cause of death for each death, IHME estimates a fraction of the full influenza-associated respiratory mortality that is measured by the other two groups. Wide variability of parameters was observed. Continued coordination between groups could assist with better understanding of methodological differences and new approaches to estimating influenza deaths globally. |
Comparison of alternative full and brief versions of functional status scales among older adults in China
Reich J , Thompson MG , Cowling BJ , Iuliano AD , Greene C , Chen Y , Phadnis R , Leung NHL , Song Y , Fang VJ , Xu C , Dai Q , Zhang J , Zhang H , Havers F . PLoS One 2020 15 (8) e0234698 BACKGROUND: Brief assessments of functional status for community-dwelling older adults are needed given expanded interest in the measurement of functional decline. METHODS: As part of a 2015 prospective cohort study of older adults aged 60-89 years in Jiangsu Province, China, 1506 participants were randomly assigned to two groups; each group was administered one of two alternative 20-item versions of a scale to assess activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) drawn from multiple commonly-used scales. One version asked if they required help to perform activities (ADL-IADL-HELP-20), while the other version provided additional response options if activities could be done alone but with difficulty (ADL-IADL-DIFFICULTY-20). Item responses to both versions were compared using the binomial test for differences in proportion (with Wald 95% confidence interval [CI]). A brief 9-item scale (ADL-IADL-DIFFICULTY-9) was developed favoring items identified as difficult or requiring help by ≥4%, with low redundancy and/or residual correlations, and with significant correlations with age and other health indicators. We repeated assessment of the measurement properties of the brief scale in two subsequent samples of older adults in Hong Kong in 2016 (aged 70-79 years; n = 404) and 2017 (aged 65-82 years; n = 1854). RESULTS: Asking if an activity can be done alone but with difficulty increased the proportion of participants reporting restriction on 9 of 20 items, for which 95% CI for difference scores did not overlap with zero; the proportion with at least one limitation increased from 28.6% to 34.2% or an absolute increase of 5.6% (95% CI = 0.9-10.3%), which was a relative increase of 19.6%. The brief ADL-IADL-DIFFICULTY-9 maintained excellent internal consistency (α = 0.93) and had similar ceiling effect (68.1%), invariant item ordering (H trans = .41; medium), and correlations with age and other health measures compared with the 20-item version. The brief scale performed similarly when subsequently administered to older adults in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS: Asking if tasks can be done alone but with difficulty can modestly reduce ceiling effects. It's possible that the length of commonly-used scales can be reduced by over half if researchers are primarily interested in a summed indicator rather than an inventory of specific types of deficits. |
Comparative reactogenicity of enhanced influenza vaccines in older adults
Cowling BJ , Thompson MG , Ng TWY , Fang VJ , Perera Rapm , Leung NHL , Chen Y , So HC , Ip DKM , Iuliano AD . J Infect Dis 2020 222 (8) 1383-1391 BACKGROUND: We analysed data from a randomized controlled trial on the reactogenicity of three enhanced influenza vaccines compared to standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine. METHODS: We enrolled community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong, and randomly allocated them to receive 2017/18 northern hemisphere formulations of: standard-dose vaccine (FluQuadri, Sanofi Pasteur); MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (FLUAD, Seqirus); high-dose vaccine (Fluzone High Dose, Sanofi Pasteur); or recombinant-hemagglutinin vaccine (Flublok, Sanofi Pasteur). Local and systemic reactions were evaluated at Days 1, 3, 7 and 14 after vaccination. RESULTS: Reported reactions were generally mild and short-lived. Systemic reactions occurred in similar proportions of participants by vaccine. Some local reactions were slightly more frequently reported among recipients of the MF59-adjuvanted vaccine and the high-dose vaccine compared to standard dose recipients. Participants reporting feverishness one day after vaccination had mean-fold-rises in post-vaccination hemagglutination inhibition titers that were 1.85-fold higher (95% CI: 1.01, 3.38) for A(H1N1) compared to those who did not report feverishness. CONCLUSIONS: Some acute local reactions were more frequent following vaccination with MF59-adjuvanted and high-dose influenza vaccines compared to standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine, while systemic symptoms occurred at similar frequencies in all groups. The association between feverishness and immunogenicity should be further investigated in a larger population. |
Burden of influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory mortality in India, 2010-2013
Narayan VV , Iuliano AD , Roguski K , Bhardwaj R , Chadha M , Saha S , Haldar P , Kumar R , Sreenivas V , Kant S , Bresee J , Jain S , Krishnan A . J Glob Health 2020 10 (1) 010402 Background: Influenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, however, reliable burden estimates from developing countries are limited, including India. We aimed to quantify influenza-associated mortality for India utilizing 2010-2013 nationally representative data sources for influenza virus circulation and deaths. Methods: Virological data were obtained from the influenza surveillance network of 10 laboratories led by National Institute of Virology, Pune covering eight states from 2010-2013. Death data were obtained from the nationally representative Sample Registration System for the same time period. Generalized linear regression with negative binomial distribution was used to model weekly respiratory and circulatory deaths by age group and proportion of specimens positive for influenza by subtype; excess deaths above the seasonal baseline were taken as an estimate of influenza-associated mortality counts and rates. Annual excess death rates and the 2011 India Census data were used to estimate national influenza-associated deaths. Results: Estimated annual influenza-associated respiratory mortality rates were highest for those >/=65 years (51.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.2-93.0 deaths/100 000 population) followed by those <5 years (9.8, 95% CI = 0-21.8/100 000). Influenza-associated circulatory death rates were also higher among those >/=65 years (71.8, 95% CI = 7.9-135.8/100 000) as compared to those aged <65 years (1.9, 95% CI = 0-4.6/100 000). Across all age groups, a mean of 127 092 (95% CI = 64 046-190,139) annual influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths may occur in India. Conclusions: Estimated influenza-associated mortality in India was high among children <5 years and adults >/=65 years. These estimates may inform strategies for influenza prevention and control in India, such as possible vaccine introduction. |
Influenza-associated hospitalization in children younger than 5 years of age in Suzhou, China, 2011-2016
Yu J , Zhang X , Shan W , Gao J , Hua J , Tian J , Ding Y , Zhang J , Chen L , Song Y , Zhou S , Iuliano AD , Greene CM , Zhang T , Zhao G . Pediatr Infect Dis J 2019 38 (5) 445-452 BACKGROUND: Studying the burden and risk factors associated with severe illness from influenza infection in young children in eastern China will contribute to future cost-effectiveness analyses of local influenza vaccine programs. METHODS: We conducted prospective, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance at Suzhou University-Affiliated Children's Hospital to estimate influenza-associated hospitalizations in Suzhou University-Affiliated Children's Hospital by month in children younger than 5 years of age from October 2011 to September 2016. SARI was defined as fever (measured axillary temperature >/= 38 degrees C) and cough or sore throat or inflamed/red pharynx in the 7 days preceding hospitalization. We combined SARI surveillance data with healthcare utilization survey data to estimate and characterize the burden of influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations in Suzhou within this age group in the 5-year period. RESULTS: Of the 36,313 SARI cases identified, 2,297 from respiratory wards were systematically sampled; of these, 259 (11%) were influenza positive. Estimated annual influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 1,000 children younger than 5 years of age ranged from 4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2-5) in the 2012-2013 season to 16 (95% CI, 14-19) in the 2011-2012 season. The predominant viruses were A/H3N2 (59%) in 2011-12, both A/H1N1pdm09 (42%) and B (46%) in 2012-13, A/H3N2 (71%) in 2013-14, A/H3N2 (55%) in 2014-15 and both A/H1N1pdm09 (50%) and B (50%) in 2015-16. The age-specific influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates for the 5-year period were 11 (95% CI, 8-15) per 1,000 children 0-5 months of age; 8 (95% CI, 7-10) per 1,000 children 6-23 months of age and 5 (95% CI, 4-5) per 1,000 children 24-59 months of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: From 2011 to 2016, influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates in children aged younger than 5 years of age in Suzhou, China, were high, particularly among children 0-5 months of age. Higher hospitalization rates were observed in years where the predominant circulating virus was influenza A/H3N2. Immunization for children > 6 months, and maternal and caregiver immunization for those < 6 months, could reduce influenza-associated hospitalizations in young children in Suzhou. |
Comparative immunogenicity of several enhanced influenza vaccine options for older adults: A randomized, controlled trial
Cowling BJ , Perera Rapm , Valkenburg SA , Leung NHL , Iuliano AD , Tam YH , Wong JHF , Fang VJ , Li APY , So HC , Ip DKM , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Fry AM , Levine MZ , Gangappa S , Sambhara S , Barr IG , Skowronski DM , Peiris JSM , Thompson MG . Clin Infect Dis 2019 71 (7) 1704-1714 BACKGROUND: Enhanced influenza vaccines may improve protection for older adults, but comparative immunogenicity data are limited. Our objective was to examine immune responses to enhanced influenza vaccines, compared to standard-dose vaccines, in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults aged 65-82 years in Hong Kong were randomly allocated (October 2017-January 2018) to receive 2017-2018 Northern hemisphere formulations of a standard-dose quadrivalent vaccine, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent vaccine, high-dose trivalent vaccine, or recombinant-hemagglutinin (rHA) quadrivalent vaccine. Sera collected from 200 recipients of each vaccine before and at 30-days postvaccination were assessed for antibodies to egg-propagated vaccine strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and to cell-propagated A/Hong Kong/4801/2014(H3N2) virus by microneutralization (MN). Influenza-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses were assessed in 20 participants per group. RESULTS: Mean fold rises (MFR) in HAI titers to egg-propagated A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) and the MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) were statistically significantly higher in the enhanced vaccine groups, compared to the standard-dose vaccine. The MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) was highest among rHA recipients (4.7), followed by high-dose (3.4) and MF59-adjuvanted (2.9) recipients, compared to standard-dose recipients (2.3). Similarly, the ratio of postvaccination MN titers among rHA recipients to cell-propagated A(H3N2) recipients was 2.57-fold higher than the standard-dose vaccine, which was statistically higher than the high-dose (1.33-fold) and MF59-adjuvanted (1.43-fold) recipient ratios. Enhanced vaccines also resulted in the boosting of T-cell responses. CONCLUSIONS: In this head-to-head comparison, older adults receiving enhanced vaccines showed improved humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, compared to standard-dose vaccine recipients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132. |
Seasonal influenza and avian influenza A(H5N1) virus surveillance among inpatients and outpatients, East Jakarta, Indonesia, 2011-2014
Lafond KE , Praptiningsih CY , Mangiri A , Syarif M , Triada R , Mulyadi E , Septiawati C , Setiawaty V , Samaan G , Storms AD , Uyeki TM , Iuliano AD . Emerg Infect Dis 2019 25 (11) 2031-2039 During October 2011-September 2014, we screened respiratory specimens for seasonal and avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infections among outpatients with influenza-like illness and inpatients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in East Jakarta, an Indonesia district with high incidence of H5N1 virus infection among poultry. In total, 31% (1,875/6,008) of influenza-like illness case-patients and 15% (571/3,811) of SARI case-patients tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), and influenza B virus infections were detected in all 3 years, and the epidemic season extended from November through May. Although 28% (2,810/10,135) of case-patients reported exposure to poultry, only 1 SARI case-patient with an H5N1 virus infection was detected. Therefore, targeted screening among case-patients with high-risk poultry exposures (e.g., a recent visit to a live bird market or close proximity to sick or dead poultry) may be a more efficient routine surveillance strategy for H5N1 virus in these types of settings. |
Effectiveness of a behavior change intervention with hand sanitizer use and respiratory hygiene in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza among schoolchildren in Bangladesh: A cluster randomized controlled trial
Biswas D , Ahmed M , Roguski K , Ghosh PK , Parveen S , Nizame FA , Rahman MZ , Chowdhury F , Rahman M , Luby SP , Sturm-Ramirez K , Iuliano AD . Am J Trop Med Hyg 2019 101 (6) 1446-1455 Schoolchildren are commonly linked to influenza transmission. Handwashing with soap has been shown to decrease infections; however, improving handwashing practices using soap and water is difficult in low-resource settings. In these settings, alternative hygiene options, such as hand sanitizer, could improve handwashing promotion to reduce influenza virus infections. We conducted a cluster randomized control trial in 24 primary schools in Dhaka to assess the effectiveness of hand sanitizer and a respiratory hygiene education intervention in reducing influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza during June-September 2015. Twelve schools were randomly selected to receive hand sanitizer and respiratory hygiene education, and 12 schools received no intervention. Field staff actively followed children daily to monitor for new ILI episodes (cough with fever) through school visits and by phone if a child was absent. When an illness episode was identified, medical technologists collected nasal swabs to test for influenza viruses. During the 10-week follow-up period, the incidence of ILI per 1,000 student-weeks was 22 in the intervention group versus 27 in the control group (P-value = 0.4). The incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza was 53% lower in the intervention schools (3/1,000 person-weeks) than in the control schools (6/1,000 person-weeks) (P-value = 0.01). Hand sanitizer and respiratory hygiene education can help to reduce the risk of influenza virus transmission in schools. |
Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project
Paget J , Spreeuwenberg P , Charu V , Taylor RJ , Iuliano AD , Bresee J , Simonsen L , Viboud C . J Glob Health 2019 9 (2) 020421 Background: Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global and regional estimates of influenza mortality burden and explore mortality trends over time and geography. Methods: We compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during 2002-2011. From these we extrapolated the influenza burden for all 193 countries of the world using a multiple imputation approach. We then used mixed linear regression models to identify factors associated with high seasonal influenza mortality burden, including influenza types and subtypes, health care and socio-demographic development indicators, and baseline mortality levels. Results: We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older. Global burden estimates were robust to the choice of countries included in the extrapolation model. For people <65 years, higher baseline respiratory mortality, lower level of access to health care and seasons dominated by the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype were associated with higher influenza-associated mortality, while lower level of socio-demographic development and A(H3N2) dominance was associated with higher influenza mortality in adults >/=65 years. Conclusions: Our global estimate of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality is consistent with the 2017 estimate, despite a different modelling strategy, and the lower 2019 estimate which only captured deaths directly caused by influenza. Our finding that baseline respiratory mortality and access to health care are associated with influenza-related mortality in persons <65 years suggests that health care improvements in low and middle-income countries might substantially reduce seasonal influenza mortality. Our estimates add to the body of evidence on the variation in influenza burden over time and geography, and begin to address the relationship between influenza-associated mortality, health and development. |
Use of TaqMan Array card for the detection of respiratory viral pathogens in children under 5 years old hospitalised with acute medical illness in Ballabgarh, Haryana, India.
Gaur B , Saha S , Iuliano AD , Rai SK , Krishnan A , Jain S , Whitaker B , Winchell J , Lal RB , Broor S . Indian J Med Microbiol 2019 37 (1) 105-108 Historical specimens collected from hospitalized children were tested for the following 13 viruses: influenza A and B; respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); parainfluenza viruses 1-3; human metapneumovirus; rhinovirus; coronaviruses 229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1 and Adenovirus using monoplex real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). They were retested using TaqMan Array Card (TAC), a micro-fluidic system, capable of simultaneous multi-pathogen testing, to evaluate its sensitivity and specificity against monoplex rRT-PCR. TAC showed high sensitivity (71%-100%) and specificity (98%-100%) for these viruses in comparison to monoplex rRT-PCR. Multi-specimen detection with high sensitivity and specificity makes TAC a potentially useful tool for both surveillance and outbreak investigations. |
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